Optimising Procurement of Essential Medicines Through the Institutionalisation of Periodic Forecast Performance Reviews in Kaduna State

Kaduna State is strengthening its commitment to data-driven procurement and supply chain excellence through the institutionalisation of periodic forecast performance reviews for essential health commodities.

In May 2025, the Kaduna State Health Supplies Management Agency (KADHSMA) conducted a comprehensive multi-year statewide quantification exercise for Essential Medicines, Maternal, Newborn and Child Health (MNCH) products, consumables and laboratory reagents covering the forecast period from April 2025 to December 2027.

Building on this important milestone, KADHSMA, with technical assistance from the Health Procurement Africa (HPA) Programme implemented by the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS), successfully concluded a three-day Annual Forecast Performance Review Workshop held from 30 June to 2 July 2026.

The workshop was facilitated by Pharm. Jimmy Aiden, HPA's Technical Specialist for Nigeria, and aimed to optimise procurement planning while strengthening evidence-based decision-making for the procurement of essential medicines and health commodities across the state.

Driving Better Procurement Through Data

Forecasting plays a critical role in ensuring that health facilities have uninterrupted access to essential medicines and supplies. By regularly reviewing forecast performance against actual consumption, health supply agencies can identify gaps, improve forecasting accuracy and make more informed procurement decisions.

The Kaduna workshop focused on reviewing the performance of forecasts generated during the 2025 statewide quantification exercise and drawing lessons to strengthen planning for the remainder of 2026 and 2027.

Key Objectives of the Workshop

The workshop sought to:

• Review forecast performance for April 2025 to May 2026 against actual consumption data using the May 2025 quantification outputs as the benchmark.
• Conduct an in-depth analysis to identify and document factors contributing to areas of poor forecast performance.
• Generate insights to support forecast revisions for the period June 2026 to December 2027.
• Develop updated product and funding requirements based on forecast performance to facilitate evidence-based and data-driven procurement planning.

Leadership Commitment to Resource Optimisation

Opening the workshop, Pharm. Aisha Isyaku Tukur, Executive Secretary of KADHSMA, emphasised the importance of data-driven and evidence-based approaches to resource optimisation in procurement and supply chain management.

She highlighted the critical role that accurate forecasting and effective procurement planning play in ensuring continuous product availability, efficient resource utilisation and value for money across Kaduna State's health system.

The workshop also brought together key stakeholders from across the health sector, including:

• Pharm. Salamatu Ibrahim, Deputy Director, Pharmaceutical Services, Kaduna State Ministry of Health
• Pharm. Abdulrahman Ado Garba, Kaduna State Primary Healthcare Board
• Pharm. Abubakar Abubakar Musa, State Logistics Officer, Kaduna State Logistics Management Coordinating Unit (LMCU)

Their participation reinforced the importance of collaboration and shared accountability in strengthening health supply chain systems.

Generating Actionable Insights for Improved Forecasting

A key outcome of the workshop was the detailed analysis of forecast performance and the generation of actionable insights to improve future procurement decisions.

The review provided greater visibility into forecasting trends and challenges, enabling KADHSMA to:

• Revise forecasts to better align procurement with actual demand.
• Strengthen supplier relationship management through improved data and planning.
• Enhance quantification methodologies and forecasting assumptions.
• Improve resource allocation and funding projections.
• Reduce the risk of stock-outs and overstocking.
• Support sustainable and efficient procurement practices.

By institutionalising periodic forecast performance reviews, Kaduna State is taking a proactive approach to strengthening health commodity security and ensuring the availability of essential medicines for its population.

Strengthening Health Systems Through Partnership

The Health Procurement Africa Programme extends its sincere appreciation to the leadership and staff of KADHSMA for their commitment to strengthening procurement and supply chain systems.

Special recognition goes to:

• Pharm. Aisha Isyaku Tukur, Executive Secretary, KADHSMA
• Pharm. Nafisatu Abubakar, Director, Health Supplies, KADHSMA
• Pharm. Mansur S. Halidu, Head of Procurement, KADHSMA
• Pharm. Mustapha Umar Mustapha
• All KADHSMA staff who contributed to the successful delivery of the workshop.

Through continued collaboration, capacity strengthening and the adoption of data-driven procurement practices, Kaduna State is setting a strong example of how evidence-based decision-making can optimise health commodity procurement, improve supply chain performance and ultimately strengthen health outcomes for communities across the state.

Health Procurement Africa (HPA), implemented by the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS), continues to support governments and health institutions across Africa in building sustainable procurement systems that deliver value, improve efficiency and ensure access to essential health commodities.