Promoting Evidence-Based Demand Planning and Procurement for Essential Medicines in Kano State

In August 2026, the Kano State Drugs and Medical Consumables Supply Agency (DMCSA) conducted a three-day Annual Forecast Performance Review workshop from 18 to 20 August, with technical support from the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS) Health Procurement Africa (HPA) programme.

Representing HPA, Technical Specialist for Nigeria, Pharm. Jimmy Aiden, supported the review process as part of ongoing efforts to institutionalise data-driven forecasting and evidence-based procurement planning within DMCSA operations.

Strengthening Data-Driven Decision Making

The workshop built on the State Essential Medicines Quantification conducted in August 2025. Participants reviewed forecasted demand against actual consumption data across 964 Stock Keeping Units (SKUs) over a 10-month period, generating critical insights to improve future forecasting accuracy and supply planning.

Key Objectives

The review aimed to:

• Assess forecast performance between October 2025 and July 2026 against actual consumption.
• Identify and document factors contributing to forecasting variances.
• Generate evidence-based insights to inform forecasting for the 2027 and 2028 procurement cycles.
• Determine product and funding requirements to support data-driven procurement planning and execution.

Notable Results

The exercise demonstrated significant progress in forecasting performance, with forecast accuracy improving by 12.9%, from 77.1% to 87.0%, across 964 SKUs. The findings also provided valuable evidence to support procurement and supply chain decisions for the upcoming 12th tender cycle.

Building Sustainable Procurement Systems

The successful review highlights the value of routine forecast performance monitoring as a key component of effective health commodity management. By embedding evidence-based planning processes, Kano State is strengthening its ability to optimise resources, improve procurement outcomes, and ensure the consistent availability of quality-assured medicines for its population.

Through continued collaboration with partners such as DMCSA, HPA remains committed to supporting stronger, more resilient procurement and supply chain systems across Africa.